The Clock We Didn't Watch - India's Demographic Dividend - Stories of craft, culture, community and then some

# The Clock We Didn't Watch - India's Demographic Dividend #Data-Analysis *Last Updated: January, 2026* Here's the uncomfortable truth: India's working-age population share will peak around 2028-2030. After that, it begins its slow decline. The window that economists have been talking about for decades, the demographic sweet spot, is closing. And we didn't fully show up for it. ## The Numbers That Should Have Been a Wake-Up Call As of 2025, over 60% of India's population falls within the working-age group (15-59 by Indian national statistics, which differs from the international definition of 15-64).[^1] According to UN population projections, this share will peak in the next three to four years (around 2028-2030) after which it will begin to decline. What's more striking: after the peak, not just the *share* but also the *absolute number* of working-age Indians is projected to fall, with the peak expected at roughly 1.04 billion people.[^1] NITI Aayog projects this "sweet spot" to span 2025 to 2035, during which around 69% of Indians will be of working age.[^2] This sounds like good news. It is. But here's the catch: demographic dividends aren't automatic deposits. They're conditional offers. The East Asian Tigers captured this. South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand saw demographic changes contribute 1.4 to 1.9 percentage points of per-capita GDP growth annually during their peak decades, accounting for roughly 25-40% of their total growth.[^3] India's numbers tell a different story. Our average annual growth in economic support ratio (defined as the ratio of effective workers to effective consumers) during the first dividend period? About 0.31%—compared to South Korea's 1.13%, Thailand's 1.03%, and China's 0.90%.[^4] Recent growth accounting shows labour force growth contributed roughly 0.9 percentage points (about 12-13% of GDP growth) in 2010-2019.[^5] That's meaningful. But it's not a transformation. It's an opportunity left on the table. ## Why Dividends Require Decades, Not Decrees Let's unpack this. Demographic dividends don't compound overnight. They're not policy announcements that translate into employment the next quarter. They require decades of synchronised effort across education systems that produce skills the economy actually needs, regulatory environments where small businesses can hire without drowning in compliance, and infrastructure that connects labour to opportunity. This is the lag effect at work. Policies initiated today need years to mature. A child entering school now won't enter the workforce for another 15-20 years. Skills programs take time to align with industry needs. Manufacturing ecosystems don't emerge from press releases. With the working-age share peaking in the next few years, the harsh math is this: new policies initiated today cannot yield their full potential returns within the remaining demographic window. The compounding that the Tigers achieved? We started too late for that. ## The Structural Barriers We Built (Or Inherited) Let me be specific about what got in the way. These aren't abstract policy failures. They're concrete friction points that throttled employment generation at scale. 1. **The Compliance Labyrinth for Small Businesses** A typical manufacturing MSME in a single Indian state faces over 1,450 compliance obligations annually under seven different branches of law. That includes 59 types of inspectors and 48 distinct registers.[^6] The annual cost? Between Rs 13 lakh to Rs 17 lakh (roughly USD 15,500-20,000) just to stay compliant.[^7] > **Labour laws alone account for 66% of all imprisonment-linked compliance clauses. Many are for procedural lapses.** The regulatory environment sees approximately 42 updates per day across ministries, amounting to 9,331 changes in FY 2024-25 alone.[^8] For a small business owner, staying current is a full-time job. Hiring more workers? That's the variable you control when nothing else feels controllable. 2. **The Education-to-Employment Chasm** According to the Economic Survey 2024-25, only 8.25% of Indian graduates are employed in roles that match their educational qualifications.[^9] More than 53% of graduates and 36% of postgraduates are in underemployed positions, i.e. jobs below their qualification level.[^10] The Mercer-Mettl India Graduate Skill Index 2025 shows that just 42.6% of Indian graduates are currently employable, down from 44.3% in 2023.[^11] Meanwhile, industries report a talent shortage of nearly 63% in sectors like IT and engineering.[^12] > **We're simultaneously producing graduates who can't find suitable work and employers who can't find suitable graduates.** Only 47% of schools offer skill-based courses for Grade 9 and above. Even where available, just 29% of students enrol.[^13] 3. **The Missing Half of the Workforce** India's female labour force participation rate has improved from 37% (July 2022-June 2023) to approximately 41.7% (July 2023-June 2024).[^14] That's progress. But context matters: much of this rise has come from rural areas, where the work is often agricultural and informal. Urban female LFPR (labour force participation rate) remains in the mid-20s percentage range.[^15] Compare this to the participation rates that powered East Asian growth, where women entering the formal workforce were a key driver of the demographic dividend. > **We're running this race with roughly half our team still on the sidelines.** ## The Policies We Launched (And When) I'll be fair here. India did launch significant initiatives across multiple governments. But timing matters when you're racing against a demographic clock, and so does execution. | Initiative | Launch Date | Key Targets | | --------------------------------- | ----------- | -------------------------------------------------------- | | Economic Liberalisation | 1991 | End Licence Raj; boost industrial growth and FDI | | Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan | 2001 | Universal elementary education by 2010 | | MGNREGA | 2005 | 100 days guaranteed rural employment per household | | National Skill Development Policy | 2009 | 500 million skilled workers by 2022 | | Right to Education Act | 2009 | Free, compulsory education for ages 6-14 | | National Manufacturing Policy | 2011 | 25% manufacturing share of GDP; 100 million jobs by 2022 | | Make in India | 2014 | Revive NMP targets; boost manufacturing FDI | | Skill India | 2015 | Train 300 million people by 2022 | | National Education Policy | 2020 | Restructure education; universal foundational literacy | 1. **Economic Liberalisation** (1991): The reforms that opened India's economy boosted industrial output, but manufacturing employment growth lagged, especially in the formal sector. Output grew faster than jobs, creating what economists called "jobless growth."[^16] The unorganised sector absorbed workers, but often in low-quality, informal employment. 2. **Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan** (2001): Primary enrollment reached ~98-99%, out-of-school children dropped from 1.35 crore (2005) to ~60-70 lakh by 2014-15.[^17] But learning outcomes didn't keep pace. ASER reports consistently showed students unable to read at grade-level years after enrollment. Access improved; quality didn't. 3. **MGNREGA** (2005): A lifeline for rural India in the form of income security during lean seasons, wage increases, and 40-60% of person-days going to SC/ST households.[^18] Women's participation exceeded 50% in many states. But the work is unskilled manual labour. It cushions; it doesn't transform. 4. **National Skill Development Policy** (2009): The original target of 500 million skilled by 2022 was wildly ambitious, given the training capacity. Annual output was in the low millions versus tens of millions needed.[^19] Placement outcomes and industry alignment were inconsistent from the start. 5. **Right to Education Act** (2009): Retention improved, dropout rates fell, and infrastructure got better. But here's the troubling finding: test scores *declined* after RTE, particularly in public schools.[^20] The no-detention policy until Class 8 allowed learning deficits to accumulate. Enrollment without learning is access without opportunity. 6. **National Manufacturing Policy** (2011): Same targets that Make in India later inherited: 25% GDP share, 100 million jobs by 2022. Between 2005 and 2010, manufacturing employment actually *declined* by about 2.7 million jobs, especially in unorganised manufacturing and rural areas.[^21] The policy never gained traction. 7. **Make in India** (2014): Manufacturing's share of GDP has not reached the 25% target. It actually declined from ~16.7% in 2013-14 to ~15.9% in 2023-24.[^22] The 100 million manufacturing jobs target remains unmet. There have been wins. Mobile imports dropped from ₹48,609 crore (2014-15) to ₹7,665 crore (2023-24), and FDI in manufacturing reached US$19.04 billion in FY 2024-25.[^23] But the structural transformation hasn't happened. 8. **Skill India** (2015): The target of training 300 million people by 2022 fell dramatically short. Actual numbers were around 13.2 million trained and 11 million certified.[^24] Audits revealed issues with credential reliability and "ghost accounts." 9. **NEP 2020**: Arguably the most thoughtful education reform in decades, but it arrived late in the demographic window. The education reforms it envisions in the form of 5+3+3+4 restructuring, vocational integration, and multilingual education need a generation to mature. Implementation remains uneven across states.[^25] ### The Pattern Across Governments The story isn't partisan, it's systemic. Well-intentioned policies launched too late, with targets disconnected from implementation capacity, and a persistent gap between enrollment/access metrics and actual outcomes (learning, employment, productivity). The East Asian Tigers had their policy infrastructure in place before their demographic windows opened. We've been building the aeroplane while trying to take off across administrations. ## What We Did Gain (Because the Story Isn't Binary) The story isn't that India gained nothing. The gains have been substantial, just not commensurate with the opportunity. - **Poverty reduction**: Under the $2.15/day threshold (2021 PPP), India's poverty rate dropped from 16.2% in 2011-12 to 2.3% in 2022-23, lifting approximately 171 million people out of extreme poverty.[^26] - **GDP per capita growth**: From roughly US$1,200 (PPP) in 1990 to nearly US$10,000 in 2024, an almost eightfold increase.[^27] - **Sustained growth**: India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy globally. Growth is projected to moderate to 6.5 per cent in 2026–27 before inching slightly to 6.6 per cent in 2027–28.[^28] These aren't small achievements. Hundreds of millions of lives improved. But the question isn't whether India grew. It's whether India captured the demographic dividend at the rate it could have. The comparative evidence suggests we captured perhaps a third of what was possible, not due to bad luck, but due to structural constraints we either built or failed to dismantle. ## What Keeps Me Hopeful Here's where I refuse to end on despair. The demographic window is narrowing, but it hasn't closed. We have roughly a decade of favourable demographics left, perhaps more if we count the extended tail through 2035. And the context is different now. **Technology as a force multiplier**: AI, automation, and digital infrastructure offer leverage that the Tigers didn't have. A smaller workforce can potentially deliver more output per person if equipped with the right tools. The promise of secure, inclusive digital public infrastructure, including identity systems, payment rails, and data exchange layers, can reduce the friction for both citizens and businesses, provided implementation balances scale with privacy and decentralisation. **Resource concentration**: With decreasing population growth, resources can be concentrated on a smaller demographic. Education spending per child, healthcare access per person, and infrastructure per user improve when the denominator grows more slowly. **Course correction is still possible**: The reforms needed across decriminalising procedural lapses for SMEs, aligning skills training with industry needs, accelerating NEP implementation, and improving female workforce participation are all known. The diagnosis is clear. What's been missing is execution urgency. The demographic dividend was never going to be automatic. It was always an invitation, not a guarantee. We showed up late, and we showed up underprepared. But we did show up. The question for the next decade isn't whether we missed the opportunity. We partially did. It's whether we can extract maximum value from the remaining window, even as it narrows. That requires honesty about where we fell short. And then, movement. [^1]: Rukmini S, "Is India's demographic dividend over?", Data For India, November 2025. https://www.dataforindia.com/demographic-dividend/ [^2]: Times of India, "India's demographic sweet spot to span from 2025-35, says Bery," 2024. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/indias-demographic-sweet-spot-to-span-from-2025-35-says-bery/articleshow/124239828.cms [^3]: Bloom, Canning, Sevilla, "Demographic Dividends Revisited," Asian Development Review, 2013. https://direct.mit.edu/adev/article/30/2/1/9861/Demographic-Dividends-Revisited [^4]: Mason & Lee, "Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia," Asian Development Review, 2021. https://direct.mit.edu/adev/article/38/1/32/98309/Population-Aging-and-the-Three-Demographic [^5]: Lee, Song, "Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia," Economic Modelling, ScienceDirect, 2025. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325000380 [^6]: TeamLease RegTech, "Decoding Compliance for Manufacturing MSMEs in India," 2024. Cited in CFO Economic Times. [^7]: CFO Economic Times, "MSME Compliance Burden: Over 1,450 Obligations," 2024. https://cfo.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/governance-risk-compliance/msme-compliance-burden-over-1450-obligations-and-costs-up-to-rs-17-lakh-annually/122112548 [^8]: Ibid. [^9]: Economic Survey 2024-25, Government of India. Cited in Careers360. [^10]: Careers360, "Economic Survey 2025: Skill Mismatch," 2025. https://news.careers360.com/economic-survey-2025-skill-mismatch [^11]: Business Standard, "India Job Market Graduate Skill Gap," 2025. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/india-job-market-graduate-skill-gap-ai-automation-employability-2025-125021800437_1.html [^12]: Economic Times, "Chief Secy Meet Flags Skill Gaps," 2025. https://m.economictimes.com/news/india/chief-secy-meet-flags-skill-gaps-low-education-levels-in-indias-workforce/articleshow/126238080.cms [^13]: PARAKH Rashtriya Sarvekshan 2024, Ministry of Education. Cited in India Today. https://www.indiatoday.in/education-today/latest-studies/story/only-47-of-schools-offer-skill-based-education-government-survey-2754757-2025-07-12 [^14]: PLFS Annual Report July 2023-June 2024. Cited in Livemint. https://www.livemint.com/economy/unemployment-rate-labour-force-participation-rate-lfpr-periodic-labour-force-survey-worker-population-ratio-wpr-11727098448165.html [^15]: NDTV, "Rural Areas See Surge in Female Participation," 2025. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rural-areas-see-surge-in-female-participation-in-workforce-study-finds-7216409 [^16]: SPRF India, "Macroeconomic Reforms and the Indian Manufacturing Sector: Locating Labour," 2023. https://sprf.in/macroeconomic-reforms-and-the-indian-manufacturing-sector-locating-labour/ [^17]: Business Standard, "UNESCO report on Universal Educational Goals" (citing UDISE data), December 2016. https://www.business-standard.com/article/government-press-release/unesco-report-on-universal-educational-goals-116120800935_1.html [^18]: Indian Express, "Women participation in NREGS continues to rise, 59% this fiscal," 2024. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/women-participation-in-nregs-continues-to-rise-59-this-fiscal-9082675/ [^19]: Ministry of Labour and Employment, "National Policy on Skill Development." https://labour.gov.in/en/policies/national-policy-skill-development [^20]: Shah & Steinberg, "Workfare and Human Capital Investment: Evidence from India," AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2019. https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/apandp/v109y2019p232-38.html [^21]: India Together, "Manufacturing and Employment," 2012. https://indiatogether.org/manuf-economy [^22]: New Indian Express, "Make in India fails to lift manufacturing share in GDP in 10 yrs," September 2024. https://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2024/Sep/26/make-in-india-fails-to-lift-manufacturing-share-in-gdp-in-10-yrs [^23]: India Briefing, "India Manufacturing Tracker 2025." https://www.india-briefing.com/news/india-manufacturing-tracker-2025-33968.html/ [^24]: India Today, "CAG exposes underbelly of India's flagship skilling scheme PMKVY," December 2025. https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/cag-exposes-underbelly-of-indias-flagship-skilling-scheme-pmkvy-2842568-2025-12-27 [^25]: EPW Engage, "National Education Policy 2020: Introspecting Implementation Challenges," 2025. https://www.epw.in/engage/article/national-education-policy-2020-introspecting [^26]: Business Standard, "India lifted 171 mn people above extreme poverty line in 10 yrs: World Bank," April 2025. https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/india-lifted-171-mn-people-above-extreme-poverty-line-in-10-yrs-world-bank-125042501237_1.html [^27]: The Global Economy, "India GDP per capita, PPP" (World Bank/IMF data). https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/India/gdp_per_capita_ppp/ [^28]: Global Economic Prospect, World Bank Publication, January 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/01/13/global-economic-prospects-january-2026-press-release